It was a Thursday night, and I was staring at a $1,450 roundtrip fare from New York to Paris. Same flight I had checked three days earlier, except back then, it was $780. No warning. No explanation. Just nearly double the price in less than 72 hours. That was the moment I realized I had no clue how airline pricing worked — and no real plan to stop overpaying. If you’ve felt that sting too, you’re not alone. Airlines run one of the most complicated and unpredictable pricing systems in the world. But once you understand how it works, it gets a lot easier to avoid getting burned. Let’s break it down.

Why flight prices seem random (but aren’t)

On the surface, airfare feels like chaos. Prices jump up and down for no clear reason. But behind the scenes, it’s a calculated system called dynamic pricing. Airlines use algorithms that factor in things like demand, booking trends, fuel prices, and even competitor pricing.

Here’s the basic cycle:

• When a flight first opens (usually ~11 months out), prices start high.
• As months pass and seats stay unsold, prices drop.
• If a bunch of people suddenly search/book the route, prices jump again.
• As the departure date gets closer, prices usually spike back up (last-minute travelers pay more).

The goal? Airlines want to fill every seat while squeezing out as much profit as possible from each passenger.

The “average person” problem

Most travelers check flights at random times. Maybe you glance at prices on your lunch break. Or while scrolling late at night. That randomness makes you easy to target. You’ll catch the fare when it’s high, and out of fear of it going higher, you’ll book right away. That’s exactly what airlines want. But here’s what savvy travelers do differently.

How deal hunters beat the system

There are three basic moves people use to catch low fares consistently:

Flexibility

The more flexible you are, the cheaper you can fly. If you’re willing to shift departure airports, adjust travel dates by a few days, or even consider alternative destinations, you can catch the best windows. For example, flying out of a nearby secondary airport (instead of the big international one) can sometimes save hundreds.

Timing

While there’s no perfect “day” to book, deals tend to pop up in waves — and often vanish within hours. Staying updated is key. That’s where services like Going come in. You enter your preferred airports (like your home airport, or even your parents’ if you visit them often), and it watches thousands of routes for you. When a price drops, you get an alert before it disappears.

Speed

Once a deal appears, you have to move fast. The best fares usually get booked within a day. With tools like Going, you get booking links and time estimates, so you don’t waste time hunting down details. All that’s left is to grab the deal and go.

Real stories of big wins

Last year, a friend of mine scored a $290 roundtrip to Iceland just because he had Reykjavik set as a “watch” destination. The deal popped up on a Tuesday morning — and he booked it before lunch. Another friend got roundtrip flights to Tokyo for $520, a route that normally hovers around $1,300 from our city. Same trick. He didn’t sit around refreshing airline websites — he just let Going do the heavy lifting.

The bottom line

Airline pricing isn’t as random as it looks. It’s a game built to benefit the airlines — but if you know the rules, you can still win. Flexibility, timing, and speed are the three levers you control. And honestly, having a tool that does the watching for you, like Going, saves a lot of headaches. You get notified of price drops to over 900 destinations worldwide without having to guess or gamble.

Airline pricing isn’t as random as it looks. It’s a game built to benefit the airlines — but if you know the rules, you can still win. Flexibility, timing, and speed are the three levers you control. And honestly, having a tool that does the watching for you, like Going, saves a lot of headaches. You get notified of price drops to over 900 destinations worldwide without having to guess or gamble.

I don’t bother manually checking flights anymore. I set my airports, wait for the deals to roll in, and when something good lands, I book it. Simple as that.

Next time you see a $1,400 fare jump overnight, you’ll know the truth: you don’t have to play that game anymore. You’ve got other ways to fly smart.